Hurricanes linked to global warming by new study
By: Asher Ball
Issue date: 8/16/07 Section: News
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The number of Atlantic hurricanes in an average season has doubled in the last century because of climate change, according to a new study.
The study, released July 29, said there is a correlation between an increasing number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the last 100 years and a 1.3-degree Fahrenheit increase in sea surface temperatures. The study was published online in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.
Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology conducted the hurricane study. Researchers found three periods since 1900 when the average number of Atlantic hurricanes significantly increased and then became steady again.
According to the study, Atlantic hurricane seasons had six storms on average annually from 1900 to 1930. From 1930 to 1940, the average rose to 10. The average then rose to 15 from 1995 to 2005.
Sea surface temperatures increased before the periods of increased storms, with a rise of .7 degrees Fahrenheit before the 1930 period and a similar increase before the 1995 period, the study stated.
"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," Holland said.
The authors of the study note that skeptics say hurricane data from the early decades of the 20th century are not reliable because cyclones may have formed and died mid-ocean, where no one knew they existed. Later, more reliable data became available in 1944 when researchers had airplane observations and when satellites came into use in 1970. However, Holland and Webster said the improved data from the last 50 years should not be solely blamed for the increase.
"We are led to the confident conclusion," the authors wrote in the study, "that the recent upsurge in the tropical cyclone frequency is due in part to greenhouse warming, and this is most likely the dominant effect."
The study, released July 29, said there is a correlation between an increasing number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the last 100 years and a 1.3-degree Fahrenheit increase in sea surface temperatures. The study was published online in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London.
Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and Peter Webster of the Georgia Institute of Technology conducted the hurricane study. Researchers found three periods since 1900 when the average number of Atlantic hurricanes significantly increased and then became steady again.
According to the study, Atlantic hurricane seasons had six storms on average annually from 1900 to 1930. From 1930 to 1940, the average rose to 10. The average then rose to 15 from 1995 to 2005.
Sea surface temperatures increased before the periods of increased storms, with a rise of .7 degrees Fahrenheit before the 1930 period and a similar increase before the 1995 period, the study stated.
"These numbers are a strong indication that climate change is a major factor in the increasing number of Atlantic hurricanes," Holland said.
The authors of the study note that skeptics say hurricane data from the early decades of the 20th century are not reliable because cyclones may have formed and died mid-ocean, where no one knew they existed. Later, more reliable data became available in 1944 when researchers had airplane observations and when satellites came into use in 1970. However, Holland and Webster said the improved data from the last 50 years should not be solely blamed for the increase.
"We are led to the confident conclusion," the authors wrote in the study, "that the recent upsurge in the tropical cyclone frequency is due in part to greenhouse warming, and this is most likely the dominant effect."
Viewing Comments 1 - 5 of 5
Ryan Tickle
posted 8/16/07 @ 2:37 PM EST
How many hurricanes reached U.S. shores in 2006? Zero. How many came ashore in 2001? Zero. Do these "scientists" get to pick and choose the years that global warming affects us?
Gene H Langenberg
posted 8/16/07 @ 3:33 PM EST
What a bunch of B.S. I would never believe anything that the UN puts out their record speaks for itself.
What about all the hurricanes in 1600, 1700, and 1800 that sank many ships in the Atlantic did they occur because of global warming?
I am sure it is President Bush's fault. (Continued…)
Stu Roach
posted 8/16/07 @ 6:18 PM EST
Seems that anything bad that happens these days is either caused by "global warming", or it's George Bush's fault. Hmm.....
tom
posted 8/16/07 @ 10:15 PM EST
It could be that in the western hemisphere there are more people, and now days obesity is a problem in the US. This added weight could throw the earth off balance and fling more hurricanes our way. (Continued…)
Haythrower
posted 8/17/07 @ 4:59 PM EST
Good story, but watch for holes. Someone knowledgeable about tropical storms in the southern hemisphere during the 2005 season, or about the 2006 hurricane season would have the opportunity to counter the 2005 Atlantic season as merely a local (both temporal and region of impact) set of events, and dismiss it as an anomaly not representative of global events. (Continued…)
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