It tends to get cold in Nebraska.
Really cold.
January’s average high temperature is 33 degrees, according to the High Plains Regional Climate Center. There are, on average, 144 days where temperatures fall below freezing, with 16 days of those falling below zero degrees.
This winter, though, Nebraskans may get a break from the parkas and snow boots.
The outlook for the season involves above-normal temperatures, said Cathy Zapotocny, meteorologist for the National Weather Service’s Omaha/Valley Weather Forecast Office.
The above-normal temperatures may be because of the El Nino effect. The United States is in an El Nino cycle, where different weather patterns are created depending on the part of the cycle the area is in.
An El Nino results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean. The changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect rainfall patterns and tropical winds over the Pacific Ocean, which then affects the ocean temperatures and currents.
During an El Nino, changes in the Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall patterns from Indonesia to the west coast of South America. The changes in tropical rainfall affect weather patterns throughout the world.
In the past, the cycle the Nebraska area is currently in resulted in a warmer winter season. Other weather predictions, however, aren’t as strong.
“The cycle isn’t a very good signal for precipitation, though there was a little more snow for El Nino in the past,” Zapotocny said.
This season’s outlook is consistent with the findings of a study by Qi Hu, a geosciences professor at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Hu’s study, “Climate Change in Nebraska,” focused on temperature change in Nebraska over the past 113 years.
The major results of the study found that Nebraska’s annual mean temperature has been increasing, showing a slow warming trend, Hu said. The annual maximum temperature hasn’t changed; however, the annual minimum temperature has also increased.
“From the annual mean temperature every year, we saw from the behavior that the temperature is getting higher and higher,” Hu said.
While students shouldn’t pack away their jackets just yet, winter in Nebraska will most likely be a warmer season overall, Zapotocny said.
“The data is consistently showing that we will be above normal,” Zapotocny said.
paigecornwell@dailynebraskan.com
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